Probabilistic analysis of traffic loading on a bridge traditionally involves an extrapolation from measured or simulated load effects to a characteristic maximum value. In recent years, Long Run Simulation, whereby thousands of years of traffic are simulated, has allowed researchers to gain new insights into the nature of the traffic scenarios that govern at the limit state. For example, mobile cranes and low-loaders, sometimes accompanied by a common articulated truck, have been shown to govern in most cases. In this paper, the extreme loading scenarios identified in the Long Run Simulation are applied to a non-linear, two-dimensional (2D) plate finite element model. For the first time, the loading scenarios that govern in 2D nonlinear analyses are found and compared to those that govern for 2D linear and 1D linear/nonlinear analyses. Results show that, for an isotropic slab, the governing loading scenarios are similar to those that govern in simple one-dimensional (beam) models. Furthermore, there are only slight differences in the critical positions of the vehicles. It is also evident that the load effects causing failure in the 2D linear elastic plate models are significantly lower, i.e. 2D linear elastic analysis is more conservative than both 2D nonlinear and 1D linear/nonlinear.
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